[MEXICO] oil votes !!
Published | 21-Aug-2008
Votes held so far have strongly opposed reform -- hardly surprising, given that turnouts have been low and those voting overwhelmingly have been supporters of the PRD. The party has claimed that the law is against Mexico’s constitution, which stipulates that oil must remain in the public sector, and has sought to stall debate in Congress. The government insists that plebiscites are non-binding, and their practical impact in the legislature will be relatively limited. Nonetheless, they will give the PRD -- and particularly its defeated 2006 presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador -- a strong argument to use in lobbying against the new law, as well as a focus around which to mobilise supporters, particularly in Mexico City. Large anti-government demonstrations now are likely, potentially targeting key infrastructure in the capital and triggering tense clashes with security forces.
Political wrangling
Despite protests, and plans for direct action by PRD legislators, it is through the ordinary channels of the legislature that the fate of energy reform will be decided. Indeed, while plebiscites and other PRD moves to stall reforms have generated headlines, the ruling National Action Party (PAN) has continued to negotiate with Mexico’s main opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) over the details of reform:
- The PAN does not enjoy an overall majority in either house of the legislature and needs PRI votes to pass laws.
- Calderon’s strategy throughout his term has been to negotiate support for legislation before introducing it.
- The case of energy reform is no different, but PRI support has wavered, as the party seeks to reconcile internal debates on the issue, and assert itself as a powerful political force.
The PRI in recent weeks has gained the upper hand in talks, introducing its own reform proposals, which are even tamer than Calderon’s already relatively limited proposals. Meanwhile, there is little prospect of Congress approving legislation in the immediate future, and delays make the Calderon administration appear weak.
Reform likely Energy sector reform ultimately is likely to be approved. While this will represent a triumph for Calderon, succeeding where his predecessor, Vicente Fox (2000-06) consistently failed, the PRI will succeed in extracting significant concessions from the government, both on reform itself and a range of other legislative initiatives. Calderon will also have spent a great deal of political capital on relatively tame oil sector reforms, at a time when other issues are increasingly pressing, such as:
- rising murder rates as a result of drug gang activities;
- the impact of economic slowdown on Mexican manufacturing; and
- falling remittances from Mexicans in the United States to relatives at home.
Calderon’s victory may prove to be hollow, which could hamper the rest of his term, and his legacy beyond.
Source: Oxford Analitica
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[NORTH AMERICA] Mexican Opposition Heightens Criticism of Oil Bill
Published | 14-May-2008Beatriz Paredes, head of the party known as the PRI, took aim at two key components of the initiative: a plan to permit private businesses to own refineries and another allowing state company PEMEX, more freedom to hire private service companies for exploration and production.
``We won't support any change that means sharing the oil revenue with private companies,'' Paredes said as lawmakers began 71 days of debate on the bill in the Senate. ``The initiative's proposals regarding contracts are suspect, confusing and open to interpretation.''
The comments from the PRI, whose support Calderon needs for the measure to be approved, suggest the government will have more difficulty passing the bill, said Miriam Grunstein, a lawyer specializing in energy for Thompson & Knight Associates in Mexico City. Calderon's National Action Party may be forced to soften the initiative to the point it won't achieve its goal of reversing a decline in oil output, she said.
``When the initiative was presented there seemed to be a consensus with the PRI,'' Grunstein said. ``Today the government's proposal looks more and more diluted and questioned.''
Calderon submitted legislation on April 8 to give Pemex more leeway for hiring private and foreign companies to explore, produce, refine and transport oil. The government is looking for ways to finance oil exploration and staunch a decline in output and reserves.
Two-Month Debate
The opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD, helped force the two months of scheduled debate on the bill when party members blockaded Congress for more than two weeks last month to protest the plan.
Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, co-founder of the PRD, said during the debate that Calderon's proposal aimed to allow Pemex to sign risk contracts with private companies. Such deals would violate the constitution and allow companies to be paid based on their output, he said.
Cardenas also urged the government to negotiate with the U.S. how each country can explore deep-water wells that straddle their maritime border.
National Action Party
German Martinez, leader of Calderon's National Action Party, denied in his speech that the plan proposed risk contracts.
``Under no circumstances does the initiative transfer the possession of resources or compromise one peso of oil revenue,'' Martinez said.
Martinez said the initiative would help Mexico lower gasoline imports, which represents about 40 percent of domestic consumption.
Paredes called on PRI lawmakers to carry out ``an exhaustive revision'' of the parts of the proposal pertaining to contracts with private companies. Grunstein said the government made a mistake by not defining more precisely the terms of such contacts.
``I think it's a strategic error of the proposal,'' she said. ``Leaving things open like that smells bad.''
Source: Bloomberg|By Jens Erik Gould and Adriana Lopez Caraveo
NORTH AMERICA: oil sector reform in Mexico?
Published | 22-Mar-2008
A number of recent signals suggest that a bill is imminent, most notably an Energy Ministry report, which showed dramatic increases in output, exports and tax revenues if private – multinational – investment is permitted in exploration for deep water oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico.
The fact that the government sent out these signals suggest that it is confident Congress would pass reforms. This comes in the wake of two potential setbacks: the election of Alejandro Encinas, who is close to defeated 2006 presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, as leader of the opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD); and a recent scandal involving Interior Minster Juan Camilo Mourino, who is President Felipe Calderon’s chief negotiator and closest political ally.
The oil sector is a nationalist sacred cow in Mexico, and any Calderon initiative would stop well short of privatising state oil monopoly, Petroleos Mexicanos. Apparent government confidence suggests that Calderon is close to reaching agreement with Mexico's other main opposition party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). This implies that the PRI will not seek to claim Mourino's head over contracts with Pemex, which he signed on behalf of his family's business when he held government posts earlier this decade – which will save Calderon from potential embarrassment and deadlock.
Source: Oxan
MEXICO: Se reabre el debate sobre la privatización de Pemex
Published | 17-Jun-2007Desde la llegada de Vicente Fox al poder en 2000 la propuesta de permitir la entrada de capitales privados en Pemex ha sido una de las ideas más abordadas a fin de reformar a la empresa petrolera estatal. Fox no pudo debido a que no contaba con el apoyo necesario en el Congreso, dominado por el PRI y el PRD. La medida es muy controvertida pues desde la nacionacilzación decretada por Lázaro Cárdenas en 1938, el petroleo es considerado como un patrimonio nacional.
El debate sobre una privatización parcial de Pemex lo reabrió ayer el ex presidente de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos, Alan Greenspan, quien pidió modificar la Constitución mexicana para permitir la inversión extranjera en Petróleos Mexicanos. Advirtió que de no incrementar el nivel de reservas y si los precios del petróleo no siguen subiendo, habrá una crisis fiscal debido a la elevada dependencia del sector público con respecto a los recursos provenientes del petróleo, que representan entre 35% y a 40% del total de los ingresos
A esta opinión se ha unido también la calificadora de riesgos crediticios Moody's Investors Service, que considera que "la paraestatal Pemex enfrenta sus más grandes retos de capital a corto y mediano plazos, ya que tiene gigantescos requerimientos de capital y altos pagos fiscales, además de que hay probabilidades muy limitadas de recibir inversión extranjera en el sector petrolero''. Pemex padece una la disminución en la producción total de crudo y se prevé que los yacimientos actuales disminuyan en un 14% entre 2006 y 2012, es decir, el sexenio del gobierno de Felipe Calderón. Esta disminución es el resultado del agotamiento del mayor yacimiento que posee México, el de Cantarell, el cual ha pasado de aportar el 64% de la producción de crudo a hacerlo en sólo el 50%.
Por contra, el secretario general de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE), el mexicano José Angel Gurría, consideró ayer que lo que debe hacer México es una reforma fiscal: "no es un asunto que dependa de si abrimos o no a PEMEX a la inversión extranjera, eso es lo que está mal enfocado en el análisis de Alan Greenspan, lo que depende es si el estado mexicano tiene la capacidad fiscal y reduce su vulnerabilidad fiscal y ya no tenga que depender en casi 40% de sus ingresos y quitarle a PEMEX las dos terceras partes de su ingreso bruto".
- La producción del principal yacimiento ha caído un 16% en los últimos años.
- La OCDE cree que lo prioritario es encarar una reforma fiscal.
- Un 40% de los ingresos del Estado mexicano dependen de Pemex
- Alan Greenspan y Moody,s consideran que debe permitirse que la inversión privada entre en Pemex.
Moody's
PEMEX
Greenspan
MexicoMEXICO: Analizarán senadores la reforma energética
Published | 03-Feb-2007La Comisión de Energía del Senado de la República iniciará este mes el análisis de los aspectos generales de lo que deberá ser una reforma en la materia, con base en las distintas iniciativas que se han presentado sobre el tema.
El presidente de dicha instancia legislativa, Francisco Labastida, indicó que el análisis arrancará a través de una visión global de los cambios que se requieren en materia de energía para, entre otros aspectos, fortalecer a Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex).
En entrevista, el legislador del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) señaló que en primera instancia se debe buscar fortalecer y hacer de Pemex una empresa más eficiente, “sacarla” del presupuesto y garantizar la seguridad energética del país.
Reconoció que para avanzar en una eventual reforma energética se debe buscar la “gran mayoría” de votos en el Legislativo, pues buscar el consenso a veces significa “cerrar” la negociación.
Dijo que la diputación del PRI todavía no tiene una postura determinada en torno a la posibilidad de promover la participación de la inversión privada en la paraestatal, pues el análisis iniciará de lo global para aterrizarlo en cuestiones de detalle.
Señaló que, por ello, examinarán las diversas opciones, siempre en busca del fortalecimiento de la empresa y de garantizar la seguridad energética nacional.
Por separado, el senador del Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), Graco Ramírez, hizo patente la negativa de esa fracción a avanzar en la posibilidad de permitir la inversión privada en Pemex.
Consideró como “una salida fácil” el intentar resolver la situación financiera de Pemex a través de la inversión privada, y se pronunció porque, por el contrario, se eficiente la recaudación fiscal para liberar a la paraestatal de la carga que tiene con el fisco.
“Lo que hay que proponer es una reforma fiscal que permita dejar de estar subsidiando con recursos de la venta petrolera a los capitales que no pagan impuesto en nuestro país”, expuso.
Sobre los intercambios de declaraciones entre los presidentes de México, Felipe Calderón, y de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, el legislador del PRD consideró que “es la manifestación de la cultura de la derecha, frente a las actitudes que plantean recuperar soberanía”.
