FRANCE: GDF Gaz de France recalled its application for participation in Nabucco gas pipeline project
Published | 18-Mar-2008
Gaz de France (GDF) has recalled its application for participation in Nabucco gas pipeline project, French Trade Minister Herve Novelli said in Istanbul.“We have recalled our application because we think that the decision of the Turkish authorizes was dictated by political reasons,” Mr Novelli said.
Earlier, Turkey vetoed participation of Gaz de France in the project due to adoption of French bill penalizing the Armenian Genocide denial.
The Nabucco pipeline is a planned natural gas pipeline that will transport natural gas from Turkey to Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. It will run from Erzurum in Turkey to Baumgarten an der March, a major natural gas hub in Austria. Some consider the pipeline as a diversion from the current methods of importing natural gas solely from Russia.
Nabucco could bring gas supplies from Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Egypt and Syria. It will be connected near Erzurum with the Tabriz-Erzurum pipeline, and with the South Caucasus Pipeline, connecting Nabucco Pipeline with the planned Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline. It will run from Erzurum in Turkey to Baumgarten an der March in Austria with total length of 3,300 kilometres (2,050 mi). In early years after completion the deliveries are expected to be between 4.5 and 13 billion cubic meters (bcm) per annum, of which 2 to 8 bcm goes to Baumgarten. Later, approximately half of the capacity is expected to be delivered to Baumgarten and half of the natural gas is to serve the markets en-route. The transmission volume of around 2020 is expected to reach 25.5 to 31 bcm per annum, of which up to 16 bcm goes to Baumgarten.
Construction of pipeline is expected to begin in 2009 and is planned to be finished in 2012. It estimated to cost around 4.6 billion EUR (5.8 billion USD). The company leading the project is OMV from Austria.
Source: Panarmenian
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RUSSIA - IRAN: Gazprom and its chessboard
Published | 21-Feb-2008

This is in spite of competition from the Chinese, with whom Iran negotiated the development of the Kish deposit in 2006 and 2007, and the possibility of Iran's supplying as for the Nabucco pipeline.
According to the Iranian Isna information agency, an agreement will be signed in April or May between Gazprom and the Iranian Oil Ministry. The deposit on the island of Kish has reserves of 1.37 trillion cu. m. Gazprom will also agree to build a gas reservoir in Iran and the parties are discussing the construction of an oil refinery in Armenia on the Iranian border.

Gazprom began working on the second and third (out of 18) blocks at Southern Pars in 1997 in a consortium with TotalElf (40%) and Petronas (30%). The complex was sold to National Iranian Oil Co. for $2 billion in 2004. The reserved at that deposit are 10 trillion cu. m. Observers note that the present undertaking may be complicated by international sanctions.

Source: Kommersant
EUROASIA: The energy war. Gazprom and Europe
Published |
Neither to Oneself, Nor to Europe
Europe satisfies over the half of its demand for natural gas by means of Russian supplies. Russia’s share in Europe’s import was expected to double in absolute terms by 2030. However, it is now questionable whether Russia is capable to maintain and increase the amount of gas supplies.
European analysts say the major part of Russian oil and gas is extracted from a small number of large but already old deposits. The extraction is falling, while gas consumption in Russia is rapidly growing. If the trend persists, Russia will simply be unable to carry out its contract obligations mapped out till 2010.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that Russia needs to open up new deposits in order to maintain at least the current level of supplies. Considering the severe climate and the remoteness from chief transport junctions and market outlets, new deposits’ development requires building new infrastructure. Meanwhile, Gazprom now has neither the necessary technologies, nor enough means (the International Energy Agency estimated the exploration of new deposits will require investment of at least $11 billion annually). Despite all the five-year economic development plans adopted between 1991 and 2006, the company has never allocated significant funds for implementing them. So, there is nothing unexpected in the prognosis that Russian gas export will reduce by 25 percent by 2015.

“Gazprom is undergoing a crisis now,” said Michael Fredholm, expert of Conflict Studies Research Center, UK Defense Academy. According to the International Energy Agency , the Russian company is losing at least 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually due to the lack of proper funding. The losses, comparable to one fifth of Russia’s export to Europe, are caused by technologic drawbacks and outdated transport infrastructure, which often leads to gas leaks and inflammation.
Gazprom and Russian officials more and more often have to deny that Europe’s energy supply is at risk. Yet, they give no clear answer to the question about how Russia is going to manage the growing domestic demand without impinging upon the obligations to European counteragents.

Russia’s authorities hope to decrease the domestic market’s gas consumption by means of switching some Russian consumers to coal. “It will trigger higher prices on electric energy, but will help Gazprom to manage its energy supply obligations to the foreign market for a while,” reads Fredholm’s report. However, even a large-scale transfer of the domestic market to coal will not make it much easier for Russia to fulfill all of its export and domestic obligations.
Speaking of export difficulties, Russia will be trying to solve them by means of Central Asian gas, which it buys at low prices from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, and, taking advantage of its monopolistic transit position, resells to Western consumers three times more expensively. Anyway, even if Gazprom succeeds in keeping up extraction at 560 billion cubic meters annually (which is impossible without investment in new deposits), and in increasing Central Asian supplies up to 70 billion cubic meters, it will not guarantee the export obligations’ fulfillment, reads the report by Swiss investment bank UBS, presented in summer 2006.

No-Alternative Choice
Europe began questioning the reliability of its major supplier with the start of Russia-Ukraine gas wars. Certainly, Russia uses its dominating position on the energy resources market for achieving its political purposes. However, it now concerns more basic issues: there will simply be not enough Russian gas for all consumers.
From now on, the decrease in Russia’s supplies means not only political independence, but also basic survival for many European states. European Union countries have been hatching long-standing plans for diversifying the supply sources by means of gaining direct access to Central Asian and Caspian deposits. However, the Russian government has been successfully counteracting all those plans, for the energy competition will reduce not only prices of energy resources, but also Russia’s political weight. According to European Union plans, the Nabucco gas pipeline is to open the access to gas deposits bypassing Russia. Nabucco’s construction was scheduled to be launched in 2007.
The new pipeline is to carry gas from the Caspian region (mainly from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan) through Turkey to Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria; the latter will distribute gas to other European consumers. “If there is a project capable to rid Europe of Russian dependence, than it is Nabucco,” experts said. However, in late 1990s, when Nabucco was just mentioned for the first time, Moscow began building its Blue Stream gas pipeline along the Black Sea bed to Turkey. Upon finishing it, Russia announced a new plan for extending it from Turkey to Europe (Blue Stream 2). Russia’s project was becoming Nabucco’s chief rival.
Soon afterwards, Moscow began enticing the European project’s investors. Austria will become Europe’s chief energy-distributing center if the Nabucco plan is implemented. Russia promised that favorable strategic position to Hungary, if the latter agrees to take part in the Blue Stream 2 project. The policy of dividing and ruling brought its fruit. Although Hungary’s oil-and-gas company MOL is a member of Nabucco Consortium, MOL signed in June 2006 an agreement with Gazprom for laying the gas pipeline from Turkey through the Balkans to Hungary. In March 2007, Hungary’s Prime Minister Ferenz Durchan said: “Nabucco is a big dream, but we don’t need dreams, we need projects”.

Gazprom does not hide its hurry to implement the South Stream project due to its direct competition with Nabucco. The chief European pipeline’s construction was put off many times due to differences between the states involved and to the uncertainty with suppliers. It is now scheduled for 2009. Yet, even with the most favorable circumstances, Nabucco will not be put into service earlier than in 2012.
Europe’s another hope is to build the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. However, Moscow has been successfully blocking this one as well.
According to the project, the pipeline is to transport gas from the eastern Caspian shore along the seabed to Azerbaijan, then to Turkey, from where it can be carried to European consumers (by means of Nabucco, for instance). Yet, there is no consensus between the five Caspian states – Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Russia – on how to divide Caspian energy resources. Taking advantage of the uncertainty of the Caspian Sea’s legal status, Russian politicians said that regardless of where the pipeline begins, all five countries in question should give their consent to its construction.
Beside Russia, Iran strongly opposes the Trans-Caspian project as well. In July 2001, the Iranian authorities sent a military ship to prevent exploration works in Azerbaijan’s sector of the Caspian shore. The works were being carried out by BP under a contract with Azerbaijan. The West admits of a possibility that the Kremlin might be sponsoring such irreconcilable position, although Iran certainly has its own reasons for not letting Europeans near the Caspian Sea.
Experts say that Moscow does everything to block EU states’ access to cheaper energy resources. In 2006, Gazprom was in cooperation talks with Algerian company Sonatrach, second largest gas supplier to Europe’s market after Russia. It is unnecessary to say how much that circumstance disturbed European consumers.
Inter-State Split-Up
Experts agree on one point: Europe needs to give up inner competition in the gas sphere and act as a united front if it wants to weaken such energy monster as Russia. However, each European country has been so far trying to peg gas supplies for itself only.
In winter 2005-06, when energy supplies to Europe were at risk, Germany signed an agreement with Russia on building a new gas pipeline – Nord Stream – allowing to transport gas directly to Germany, bypassing Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland. Having learned about it, Polish President Alexander Kvasnevsky compared it to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Anyway, despite the energy arm-twisting opportunities which Moscow acquires with Nord Stream, Germany has secured its energy safety.
Other European states behave in a similar way. They hurried to sign bilateral agreements with Russia. In the last two years, Gazprom signed contracts with Italian, French, and Dutch oil-and-gas companies, whose playing against one another allows Russia to push for more favorable terms and to receive larger profits. According to apt statement by Zeyno Baran, director of Hudson’s Center for Eurasian Policy, “while Europe is trying to coordinate its actions, Putin is signing deals”.

Source: Kommersant|Maria Klochkova
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ASIA: Azerbaijan likely to earn 400 billion petrodollars in 16 years
Published | 05-Feb-2008
Azerbaijan is predicted to earn $400 billion of oil and gas revenues within 16 years, said Azerbaijan’s Industry and Energy Minister Natig Aliyev said in an interview with a group of reporters from the European Union countries. He said the current uptrend in the world oil market increased expectations while country’s oil and gas revenues had previously been forecasted to be $200 billion until 2024.According to him, Azerbaijan is expected to produce 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Shah Deniz in 2010-2012 and will occupy an important place in energy security of Europe.
He said Azerbaijan has demonstrated political will for implementation of Nabucco and Trans-Caspian Projects.
The assets of State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) are predicted to grow to $7 billion this year if oil prices remain high.
Source: Today.Az
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IRAN: Nabucco pipeline project impossible without Iran
Published | 27-Dec-2007“If Nabucco pipeline comes on stream, Iran will be the sole option for supplying its gas as the country is the world’s second-largest holder of natural gas,” said the minister, however adding other companies could also provide some part of the project’s gas.
National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) Managing Director Mohammadreza Ne’matzadeh had already announced that Europe had no way out but to satisfy its energy needs by transferring Iran’s gas via Turkey’s Nabucco pipeline.
“That’s why the new Nabucco pipeline which was proposed by Turkey for transferring gas supplies of Central Asia and Iran to Europe was welcomed by the energy ministers of Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey itself and that’s why the said energy ministers in a recent meeting have each taken up a 20% share for the establishment of the pipeline.”
Turkey and Iran are expected soon to complete the agreement to build some 3,500 kilometers (2,200 miles) of gas pipelines to transport up to 40 billion cubic meters (1.4 trillion cubic feet) of gas annually to Europe through Turkey.
Nabucco pipeline aims to reduce Europe’s dependency on gas from Russia, which has proved to be an unreliable energy supplier in recent years. European Union is lagging behind in implementing the project and has not made headway yet. A reason is that Europe has not found a proper alternative for Russian gas.
It seems Nabucco project cannot be economically viable unless it transfers Iran’s gas to energy-hungry European countries via Turkey’s gas could be transferred via the pipeline by 2017.
The United States, in continuation of its hostile stance on Iran since the Islamic Revolution, has so far exerted pressure to impede Iran’s participation in the project.
However, whether the U.S. and its allies like it or not, Iran is the most reliable and best partner for the project.
The latest EU report on the project said that it would start in 2013 and EU coordinator in Nabucco project predicted that Iran
The project faces two major obstacles; Russian concerns about possible participation of Central Asian countries and transfer of required technologies to Iran to control its high gas consumption.
Independent gas transit deals signed between Moscow and former Soviet Union states and Russia’s contracts with Germany and Italy for laying gas pipelines will weaken the possibility of Central Asian countries in the project.
Partners in the Nabucco project, whose name is taken from the Babylonian king Nabucco, famously known as Nebuchadnezzar, which expelled the Jews from Babylon, have set up their dreams to ensure energy security for Europe. They should know that their dream will not be materialized without peace and security in region traversed by the pipeline.
read more | digg story
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RUSSIA: Viktor Zubkov, guarantees gas supplies to Europe
Published | 12-Dec-2007"Russia is a reliable supplier and Russia will fulfill all its obligations in the future as well," Zubkov told a press conference alongside his Hungarian counterpart Ferenc Gyurcsany after a meeting.
Zubkov said Russia now had "no problems" with Belarus and Ukraine, two key transit countries for gas headed towards the European Union. Last year, price disputes between Moscow and those two countries caused supply disruptions.
The prime minister's comments came after Ukraine and Russia agreed on Tuesday on the price of gas for 2008.
Last year's dispute spurred European Union countries, who depend on Moscow for around a quarter of their gas supplies, to seek new suppliers and transit routes.
One such project is the Nabucco pipeline, which would carry gas from central Asia to Europe, circumventing Russia.
Gyurcsany, whom Brussels criticised earlier this year for his apparent lukewarm attitude towards Nabucco, argued Friday: "Hungary is among the countries in the European Union that is most reliant on Russian energy supplies."
But he added: "It is in Hungary's interest to diversify its supplies and supply routes."
Gyurcsany said the planned US anti-missile system in the Czech Republic and Poland, which Russia vehemently opposes, was not on the agenda of Friday's discussion.

Via: AFP
Tags: fotolog|turkey|www.BajaeNergyBLOG.com|Viktor Zubkov, Czech Republic, European Union, US anti-missile system, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Nabucco, Nabucco pipeline, Russia
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RUSSIA: Nabucco Pipeline and its partners
Published | 14-Sep-2007The current five partners will select ``one or two'' more companies either next month or in November, Nabucco Gas Pipeline International Managing Director Reinhard Mitschek said in an interview in Budapest today.
Adding more partners may help Nabucco in securing financing and customers for the pipeline, which is scheduled to start operation in 2012. Germany's RWE AG and Gaz de France SA are vying to join the plan to ship gas over 3,300 kilometers (2,070 miles) between the Caspian region and western Europe, helping the European Union reduce its energy dependence on Russia.
``We'll have a solution in the fourth quarter,'' Mitschek said. ``There's no final decision on'' the number of shareholders. ``There's no final decision whether we stop with six or we go to seven.''
Companies currently involved in Nabucco are Turkish state pipeline company Botas, Bulgaria's Bulgargaz AD, Romania's Transgas and Austrian and Hungarian oil companies OMV AG and Mol Nyrt.
The Nabucco pipeline would rival a natural-gas link planned by Russia's OAO Gazprom, which wants to ship more of the fuel to western Europe. The company wants to build routes under the Black and Baltic seas to reach its customers in the European Union, where gas demand is expected to double through 2030.

Kremlin Concern
Gazprom and the Kremlin view Nabucco preparations with concern, Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister in Russia who is now a Moscow consultant, said in an interview. Alternate routes and diversified suppliers threaten their grip on the region's energy market, he added.
``They philosophically, mentally and physically hate competition,'' Milov said. ``They don't understand free markets. They love monopoly and control. That is their instinct.''
Russia wants to make it difficult for Nabucco to get off the ground by directing more natural gas from Turkmenistan toward Gazprom and by getting eastern European governments to commit to the use of more of its gas, Milov said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, who earlier this year was criticized by the European Union for supporting Gazprom's plans, called today for faster progress on Nabucco.
``The most important thing about Nabucco is that it helps reach new sources of gas and through a new route,'' Gyurcsany said at an energy conference in Budapest. ``The task of this conference is to speed up the process, to give more momentum to quicken the financial issues.''
Hungary imports 80 percent of its gas from Russia, making it the biggest customer of Russia's Gazprom in central and eastern Europe, according to Gazprom data. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Gyurcsany agreed in February 2006 to make Hungary a hub for sending Russian gas to western Europe.

Via|Bloomberg|by Marek Miler and Balazs Penz
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